A dissent

My colleague, crimenotes, has argued that the 14 Senators who averted a showdown over the use of judicial filibusters have served the Senate and the courts well. That is undeniably true for the moment, but how long can the centrists hold? To appropriate my fellow blog owner/operator's analogy of the Cuban Missile Crisis, it's as if Cuba has been blockaded, but is still bristling with warheads. Additionally, the compromise has already cost the Democrats the use of the filibuster on a large number of repugnant nominees.

By agreeing to stand down and not block judges like Janice Rogers Brown, the Democrats have cleared a path for any future nominees with her views. As my fellow side-dish aficionado has rightly noted, her views are rather hostile to citizens in general.

Furthermore, this compromise is only as good as the backbone of the weakest one or two Republican signatories. As Josh Marshall has noted, the whole nucular option crap was all about untrammeled power, not just winning on these nominees. The nature of the compromise is such that there's nothing preventing Majority Leader Bill Frist from trying again to strip the Democratic minority of its ability to filibuster judicial nominees.

Now, it's true that perhaps part of the appeal for this compromise is that it sends a signal to the White House and Frist that a future nominee to the Supreme Court must be more moderate. This would be a stronger argument if the Republican leadership had ever shown any ability to moderate its extremist behavior. Now that the Republicans' frothing base is so incensed by this compromise, such behavior seems even more unlikely in the future.

Instead, I foresee some arm-twisting in the futures of the Republican Senators who joined the compromise. Republicans who oppose the White House on important issues have a way of reconsidering. Consider the case of Michigan Rep. Nick Smith's vote on the Medicare bill as well as the more recent occurence in which George Voinovich brought the nomination of John Bolton (as UN ambassador) to a screeching halt, then went ahead and agreed to vote for Bolton before voting against him.

In fact, if this report is to be believed, Frist may already be turning up the heat. Now, I would like to believe that the consciences of these Senators will prevent their Republican colleagues from finding a way to carry out their putsch. But if the leadership and White House truly are stymied here, this would be a ringing triumph for common sense and fairness, as well as democracy. It would also be a surprise.

For these reasons, I must respectfully dissent. Flop, J.